🏛️ Macroeconomic Dashboard

Professional-grade macro analysis with FRED data. Updated hourly.

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Dashboard Summary

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Recession Risk
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Calculating...
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Fed Stance
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Calculating...
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Inflation Status
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Calculating...
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Labor Market
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Calculating...

📰 Macro Analyst Commentary

Economic Calendar

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Date Event Previous Estimate Actual Impact
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1. Recession & Cycle Indicators

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Yield Curve (10Y-2Y Spread)

Inversion often precedes recession

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Sahm Rule Recession Indicator

Threshold: 0.50 (currently --)

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Unemployment Rate

With 3-month moving average

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Leading Economic Index (6M ROC)

Conference Board data

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2. Inflation & Fed Policy

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Core PCE Inflation (YoY)

Fed's preferred measure

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Fed Funds Rate vs Neutral

Estimated neutral: 3.125%

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Real Interest Rates

10Y Treasury - 10Y Inflation Expectations

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3. Growth & Consumption

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Real GDP Growth (YoY)

Quarterly data

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Retail Sales Growth

Ex Food Services (3M MA)

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M2 Money Supply (YoY)

vs Real GDP Growth

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4. Labor Market Health

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Initial Jobless Claims

4-week moving average

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Job Openings (JOLTS)

Labor demand indicator

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Avg Hourly Earnings (YoY)

Wage growth indicator

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5. Markets & Sentiment

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Credit Spreads (Baa-10Y)

Corporate bond risk premium

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Consumer Sentiment

University of Michigan

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Equity Valuations vs Interest Rates

P/E Ratios (left) vs Yields (right)

CAPE -- (Avg: 16.9)
10Y --
Fed Funds --