🏛️ Macroeconomic Dashboard
Professional-grade macro analysis with FRED data. Updated hourly.
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Dashboard Summary
Recession Risk
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Fed Stance
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Inflation Status
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Labor Market
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📰 Macro Analyst Commentary
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Economic Calendar
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| Date | Event | Previous | Estimate | Actual | Impact |
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1. Recession & Cycle Indicators
--Yield Curve (10Y-2Y Spread)
Inversion often precedes recession
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Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Threshold: 0.50 (currently --)
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Unemployment Rate
With 3-month moving average
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Leading Economic Index (6M ROC)
Conference Board data
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2. Inflation & Fed Policy
--Core PCE Inflation (YoY)
Fed's preferred measure
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Fed Funds Rate vs Neutral
Estimated neutral: 3.125%
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Real Interest Rates
10Y Treasury - 10Y Inflation Expectations
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3. Growth & Consumption
--Real GDP Growth (YoY)
Quarterly data
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Retail Sales Growth
Ex Food Services (3M MA)
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M2 Money Supply (YoY)
vs Real GDP Growth
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4. Labor Market Health
--Initial Jobless Claims
4-week moving average
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Job Openings (JOLTS)
Labor demand indicator
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Avg Hourly Earnings (YoY)
Wage growth indicator
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5. Markets & Sentiment
--Credit Spreads (Baa-10Y)
Corporate bond risk premium
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Consumer Sentiment
University of Michigan
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Equity Valuations vs Interest Rates
P/E Ratios (left) vs Yields (right)
CAPE
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(Avg: 16.9)
10Y
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Fed Funds
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